Dynamics of COVID-19 variants of concern
Mathematical analysis of competitive variant dynamics over asymptotic and policy-relevant finite time horizons.
The problem
Long-run epidemic behaviour does not always describe what happens over the finite horizons that matter for surveillance and public-health decisions. We studied how emerging variants compete and replace one another under those two perspectives.
My contribution
I contributed mathematical modelling and analysis of a multi-variant COVID-19 system, connecting asymptotic results with finite-time dynamics. The work demonstrates how transient behaviour can add decision-relevant information beyond equilibrium analysis.
Methods and tools: compartmental ODE models, stability analysis, finite-time analysis, infectious-disease dynamics.